Thanks to significant declines in the cost of wind, solar and battery storage technology, the global power mix in 2050 is to contain 48% wind and solar power, shows the New Energy Outlook 2019 (NEO).
By 2050, electricity will account for a quarter of all energy demand, compared with 18 percent now. How will that additional power be generated? More than three-quarters of new capacity (77 percent), according to the McKinsey research, will come from wind and solar, 13 percent from natural gas, and the rest from everything else.
Adopting a thermodynamic approach, Lorenz was able to estimate the available energy in the global wind system as of the order of 4 PW. On this basis, annual wind electricity generation in 2050 at the scale discussed above, would amount to approximately 0.25% of the available energy in the general atmospheric circulation.
Will solar power grow in 2050?
Solar PV generation share would need to increase from 2% in 2018 to 25% by 2050. Wind capacities would need to be significantly scaled-up in coming decades. Asia (mostly China and India) would continue to dominate the onshore wind power industry, with more than half of global installations by 2050, followed by North America (23%) and Europe (10%).
What percentage of energy will be produced by 2050?
By 2050, the research estimates that coal will be down to just 16 percent of global power generation (from 41 percent now) and fossil fuels to 38 percent (from 66 percent now). Overall, though, coal, oil, and, gas will continue to be 74 percent of primary energy demand, down from 82 percent now.
Wind and solar PV would be prominent generation sources by 2050. Wind power supply would need to increase from 6% in 2018 to 35% of total electricity needs by 2050. Solar PV generation share would need to increase from 2% in 2018 to 25% by 2050. Wind capacities would need to be significantly scaled-up in coming decades.
Wind and solar can provide significantly more energy than the highest energy demand forecasts for 2050 and nearly ten times current electricity demand (299 TWh/year). The research shows up to 2,896 TWh a year could be generated by wind and solar, against the demand forecast of 1,500 TWh/year.